Unfortunately, there's an economic incentive to the first to report the news. That how come, in 2000, some states were initially reported as one way swung the other afterward. Pennsylvania in 2000 comes to mind rather quickly as an example.
That said, it is interesting how they can definitively call a state without all the votes talled. However, it is statistically valid that if votes are weighted a certain amount in a particular candidates favor and a certain percentage of the votes are counted, it is reasonable to say that the rest of votes won't overcome that. I don't know the exact numbers that are used, but I would imagine that the predictors are updated every election to avoid publicly embarassing moments.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2008-11-05 07:48 pm (UTC)That said, it is interesting how they can definitively call a state without all the votes talled. However, it is statistically valid that if votes are weighted a certain amount in a particular candidates favor and a certain percentage of the votes are counted, it is reasonable to say that the rest of votes won't overcome that. I don't know the exact numbers that are used, but I would imagine that the predictors are updated every election to avoid publicly embarassing moments.